Big Day for the BCS

On the day after Thanksgiving, the BCS could take a major shake up, as the #2 Auburn Tigers travels to the #11 Alabama Crimson Tide. Then the #21 Arizona Wildcats go on the road to Autzen Stadium to take on the #1 Oregon Ducks. But not to be outdone, the #4 Boise State Broncos go to #19 Nevada Wolf Pack, in a game that the Broncos need to dominate in order to stay alive in the BCS race.

#21 Arizona @ #1 Oregon:

Of the three big games, I expect that this one is the biggest Laugh-er. The Oregon Ducks are the top ranked team in the nation for a reason, they are the best. Their offense is among the best in the country scoring an average of 50.7 points per game to go along with 291 rushing yards per game. To put it bluntly, the Oregon Ducks are hard to stop. Arizona is a good team, but have lost two games in a row to Stanford and then USC, and have looked bad in both of those games. I don't expect it to get any better as they travel to Autzen Stadium in Eugene, Oregon. The Ducks will roll in this one, and retain their #1 spot atop the BCS standings.

The spread in this one is Oregon by 19.5. Oregon stunk it up in their last game and barely survived California 15-13. I think that the Ducks get back on track here and dominate Arizona. I'll take the Ducks(-19.5) as they will beat up on the Wildcats at home, 44-14.


#2 Auburn @ #11 Alabama:

The Iron Bowl is set for this Friday, and it will be a dandy. This match-up features the 5th ranked offense of Auburn against the 3rd ranked defense of Alabama. Alabama has given up only an average of just 12.8 points per game, which makes you wonder how they have lost two games this year? Ohh yah, that because they are the SEC and have to play a tough team every single week. But wait, so is Auburn, and they are a perfect 11-0 for the year. Auburn averages 42.8 points a game, good enough for 5th best in the country, but this is a tough task to go to Alabama in the Iron Bowl. With the controversy surrounding Cameron Newton I don't know if Auburn can go to Tuscaloosa and win. Alabama is not where they expected to be right now, but that leaves them with no pressure in the Iron Bowl. You can bet that Alabama wants nothing more than to prevent their arch rivals from the chance at the BCS National Championship game. Auburn, on the other hand, has everything to lose, and that could lead to some tightness early in this, the biggest game of their season to date. This game will be a battle to the very end, and it could go either way in the Iron Bowl this year.

The spread here is Alabama by 4.5 points, which surprised me a little bit because Auburn is undefeated, but Alabama is the more experienced team in big games, having won the National Championship last year, and they deserve to be the favorites. They wont take Auburn lightly, and I think Alabama will "upset" a higher seeded Auburn team in Tuscaloosa on Friday. I do think that Auburn will cover the spread, but that Alabama will win the game. Ill take Auburn(+4.5). But Alabama wins the most competitive game of the day, 26-24.


#4 Boise State @ #19 Nevada:

This might be the biggest game that nobody is talking about on Friday, especially if Alabama handles Auburn. Boise State is the Cinderella team in college football, and the team that everybody wants to get their shot at the BCS National Championship game. Due to a weak strength of schedule, Boise has not gotten that opportunity. Is this this year? Maybe it's not fair, but I'll just say it. If Auburn and Oregon win out, then they will be the two teams playing for the National Championship, and again Boise State will be snubbed. BUT if one of those teams lose(most likely Auburn), and Boise can jump TCU then Boise could get that shot that everybody wants them to get. This is the game that Boise State wants on their schedule, a late season game against a ranked opponent on the road. This is that kind of game that they have been missing in the past. The interesting thing is that if Auburn can beat Alabama this game loses some of its luster because it doesn't matter as much for the BCS National Title game. Right now Boise State has a .8860 in the BCS, and TCU is only at .8995. TCU struggled in their last game against a mediocre San Diego State team, only beating them 40-35. If Auburn loses, and Boise keeps beating teams bad while TCU struggles against okay team, Boise could barely bump up enough to get that shot. Chris Petersen will have his troops ready to go into Reno and win a big game. "But wait, what about us?" says Nevada? And they have a point, Nevada is very good too, going 10-1 on the year so far with the only loss being to a good team at Hawaii. Colin Kaepernick can lead his team down the field and score, averaging 44.1 points per game, good enough for 4th in the country. But Boise prides themselves on defense and are ranked 2nd in the country for points against with 11.5 per game. I think that the home crown and very good offense will keep the Wolf Pack in this thing for a quarter or so, but Boise is too good on both sides of the ball and will run away with it late.

The spread is Boise State by 14. Here is how I see this one going down. Nevada will be great in the first quarter and a half but Boise State will stay with them and hang around and where them down by halftime, and come out and crush them in the second half once the crowd has been taken out of it. So bettors, don't be alarmed when Nevada comes out strong, and stays with the Broncos. If the score is 10-7 Boise or even Nevada after the first quarter that wouldn't scare me if I bet Boise. I would bet the farm on Boise(-14) in this game. Once the excitement of the game dies down a little, and the crowd has calmed down and it comes down to just the teams on the field, Boise will roll. After a 7-7 first quarter, Boise will come alive and win the game 35-13 in Reno.


RECAP:

Oregon rolls at home against a average Arizona squad 44-14. Auburn comes close, but misses their chance at the National Title with a 26-24 loss to the Crimson Tide. This leaves a opening for Boise State to jump to #2 in the BCS. TCU will win this week against a bad New Mexico team, but a big win for Boise will bump them to #2 because of the strength of their win versus TCU's win against a bad team. Boise State beats a good Nevada team on the road, 35-13, and come Sunday look for those pesky Broncos to be up to #2 in the BCS standings, for now at least.